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Tomorrow's Forecast:Blog Accuracy: A Review for 10th March:Last post I predicted cases of Coronavirus in the US to be about 916. I actually found I had made the error of putting in the wrong start date numbers, so the equation was off. If I had used the old equation: Well, that one, but with all the updated rates, the domain would have been [904, 1031] with an average of 944 cases. That said, the model's average, if I was not a moron, would have been -66 cases. I do all this updating so that we can get a better view of the graph over time of the model: As you can tell, the slope of the real world cases jumped a bit between the 9th and 10th. I am hoping this model will be able to keep a hold of the real world cases. The domain is pretty solid, because, notwithstanding my error last time, the actual number has always been in the domain. I also wanted to update the doubling-rates, this time with the proper number of significant figures, to add some more precision: That is about all, and sorry for the error, nnguys. I am committed to try and be consistent and accurate.
Until tomorrow, - AF.
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AuthorI'm just trying to learn about everything I can. Archives
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