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Tomorrow's Forecast:Blog Accuracy: A Review for 11th March:This will probably be the last entry forecasting the spread of Coronavirus in the US. The big take away from all this research is simple enough: I have compiled adequate data to demonstrate the "alarming" doubling rate of 6 in the US is more than a conservative under representation of what is really going on. Again, the cases were within the domain, but under the predicted average of 1252 cases. This is an error of +59 cases. Here is the graph updated for today: As you can see, the r value dipped slightly today. This is reflected in the average, bringing it down again slightly: That is pretty much it. You can expect to surpass the 2000 mark by the end of the 13th. Maybe fitting that will Friday the 13th, after all.
Even when good journalists like Tucker say this is not under control, it seems like the mainstream statisticians will give you, willingly or not, a number more manageable. I do not think Tucker is reporting disingenuously, he got that number of 6 from some authority. But that authority, then, has a responsibility to show just how much more quickly this virus is really spreading now. Make sure you take some precautions. I do not think you need to build bunkers or anything, but get some masks if you can find any. Get some food (rice, peanut butter, storeable food, etc.) Maybe invest in some first aid kits, and know how to deal with what is probably likely: a further increase in this virus spreading. Wash you hands, use your shirt to open door knobs, all of that stuff. If you disinfect surfaces, know that you cannot "spray and dry" the surface. You need a minimum of a 10 minute contact time for products like Lysol to really do it's work. Do not worry too much, though, - AF.
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AuthorI'm just trying to learn about everything I can. Archives
June 2020
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